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Seven years ago, it took just eight words to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position and Settled Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence indicates a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

David Lammy muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal involves announce the start of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea by warning a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made much harder because his ministers actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Considerations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes a single mention to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter and The Ghost from the Past

All of which returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch for the leadership but merely an effort to keep open the possibility of remain in a future vote. Indeed, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk & A Wise Memory

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.