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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."